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Crisis and Criminal Justice: Unterschied zwischen den Versionen
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And then, a decade later, crime started falling: across the country by a standard measure of about forty per cent; in New York City by as much as eighty per cent. By 2010, the crime rate in New York had seen its greatest decline since the Second World War; in 2002, there were fewer murders in Manhattan than there had been in any year since 1900. In social science, a cause sought is usually a muddle found; in life as we experience it, a crisis resolved is causality established. If a pill cures a headache, we do not ask too often if the headache might have gone away by itself. | And then, a decade later, crime started falling: across the country by a standard measure of about forty per cent; in New York City by as much as eighty per cent. By 2010, the crime rate in New York had seen its greatest decline since the Second World War; in 2002, there were fewer murders in Manhattan than there had been in any year since 1900. In social science, a cause sought is usually a muddle found; in life as we experience it, a crisis resolved is causality established. If a pill cures a headache, we do not ask too often if the headache might have gone away by itself. | ||
2012: Frank Zimring, The City that became safe. Reasons: there was a decline all over the Western world in the 1990s that still escapes explanation. But the extra 40% percent of crime drop in NYC can be explained. | |||
#The change did not come from resolving the deep pathologies that the right fixated on - from jailing super predators, driving down the number of unwed mothers, altering welfare culture. | |||
#Nor were there cures for the underlying causes pointed to by the left: injustice, discrimination, poverty. | |||
#Instead, small acts of social engineering, designed simply to stop crimes from happening, helped stop crime. In the 90s, the NYPD began to control crime not be fighting minor crimes in safe places but by putting lots of cops in places where lots of crimes happende - hot-spot policing. The cops also began an aggressive, controversial program of stop and frisk including "profiling". Minority communities paid a disproportionate price in kids stopped and frisked, and detained, by they also earned a disproportionate gain in crime reduced. "The poor pay more and get more" (Zimring). | |||
A "light" stop and frisk brought down urban crime and had the net effect of greatly reducing the number of poor minority kids in prison for long stretches. | |||
1961: 26% of NYC population was minority African American or Hispanic. | |||
2012: 50%. And less crime. | |||
'''Brings down supply side criminology = If you bring it down here, it pops up there.'' | |||
Close down Washington Square and it does not automatically migrate to Tompkins Square Park. It just stops, or the dealers og indoors, where dealing goes on but violent crime does not. | |||
Virtuous cycle: when yours friends don't do robberies anymore, you don't do them anymore. Crime is recreational, part of a lifestyle. Crime does not stop by being tough, nor by alleviating social grievances. It stops by being met with small, annoying barriers to entry. | |||
NYC locked up much less people (different from other states) during its crime drop than before. The crime drop had nothing to do with locking up more people. | |||
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*The probable one: see Harari and Helotes | *The probable one: see Harari and Helotes | ||