Katar
Israel's Plans for a Holy Alliance Against Iran
Battling the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadist forces at home while trying to drag Egypt out of its economic abyss, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has found allies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states – all desperate to ward off the combined threats of a nuclear Iran and Islamic State.
The terrorists of Islamic State have taken over part of western Iraq, a few hundred kilometers from the Saudi border; this is nothing short of a vital threat to the kingdom, and reinforcements have been rushed in. Yet while Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have joined the US-led coalition against Islamic State, they have not sent troops to Iraq because they are reluctant to risk their armies, ill-equipped for guerrilla and urban warfare.
On the other hand, Tehran is still set to implement the goal Ayatollah Khomeini set when he toppled the shah in 1979: Destroy the Saudi regime, and impose Shi’ite Islam on the Gulf states. It is to achieve this aim that Iran is determined to obtain the nuclear weapons which will ensure its domination not only of the Gulf, but the entire Middle East.
In Yemen, Iran is aiding and abetting the Houthis – an extremist Shi’ite tribe – who have made major inroads in their fight against the central government; they have taken over the capital of Sanaa and the strategic port of Hodeidah on the Red Sea, and are directly threatening not only the western coast of Saudi Arabia but also the entrance to the Suez Canal – and therefore Egypt.
There is thus a community of interests linking the Gulf states and Egypt, in effect the front of pragmatic countries against the threat of Sunni and Shi’ite terror. But first, Qatar has to be brought in line. - The small emirate, though a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, has its own agenda and actively supports a number of militant Islamist organizations fighting in Syria and Libya – as well as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. In this way, it is the weak link in the chain, more so since it is on friendly terms with Tehran. - Last year, matters came to a head. Qatar opposed the ouster of Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi, standing by the Muslim Brotherhood; Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE all recalled their ambassadors from Doha. It was to no avail; Qatar’s links to the Brotherhood go back to the ’50s, when it welcomed members fleeing the wrath of Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser after they failed to assassinate him. The Brotherhood subsequently helped develop the country while promoting their own brand of extremist Islam. They exerted a strong influence on the Al Jazeera channel since its inception in 1996, turning it into a tool for incitement against a number of Arab states and ratcheting up attacks on Egypt after Morsi’s ouster. Riyadh leaned heavily on Doha to make it change its ways but the small emirate stood its ground, secure in the knowledge that it had the support of European countries by virtue of its huge investments there; and that of the US, which has important military bases on its soil."
The Saudis, together with additional Sunni states (mainly in the Gulf), have already agreed to adopt symbolic gestures discussed in the past, such as opening up its airspace to Israeli planes. But the “real thing” is supposed to transpire only after real progress in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. And the “real thing” is a regional alliance involving Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, perhaps Kuwait — and Israel, of course.
This regional alliance would not constitute a traditional defense alliance — one that the United States will be a member of — yet it is clear that this regional alliance would be under American patronage and with full military and diplomatic American support. It would be an independent enterprise of those Middle East countries that fear the expiration date of the nuclear agreement the six world powers signed with Iran. When this agreement comes to its end, Iran will face a fortified barricade that will include Saudi-Gulf money, Egyptian military power and Israeli technological superiority. This is the dream of quite a number of secret regional heroes who are scurrying around the Mideast these days. The chances for realizing these plans now depend quite a bit on Trump’s determination and resolve. And the Trump who arrived in Israel on Monday was quite exhausted after two hectic days in Saudi Arabia.
The first to identify this possibility of a regional alliance was Ephraim Sneh, a brigadier general (res.) and former minister in various Israeli governments. Sneh, a recognized security figure in the Middle East, is known for his good relations with Israel’s Arab neighbors. After Trump’s victory in the elections, in the days when everyone buried the two-state solution and celebrated the end of the peace process, Sneh listened to an interview that Trump gave The Wall Street Journal in November 2016 in which the president-elect sang an entirely different tune. Trump talked about the “ultimate deal” that he wanted to achieve between Israel and the Palestinians. Sneh seized the opportunity and, several days later, published an article in The Huffington Post with a proposal for the same "deal” based on a compromise of the various proposals discussed by the Palestinians and Israelis over the years. He then added a pitch for a regional alliance into the deal.
Over time, the regional alliance concept made waves and circulated among the respective capitals. When attempts were made to establish a unity government in Israel with Zionist Camp leader Isaac Herzog, the regional alliance idea continued to flower. Personages such as Middle East envoy Tony Blair and other mediators also pushed forward the idea of establishing a unity government on such an initiative.
As of today, this regional alliance partly exists between Israel and the Sunni countries, in the combined efforts to halt the continued expansion of the Shiite axis under Iranian and Hezbollah leadership. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates are horrified about what will transpire on the “day after” the termination of the nuclear agreement between Iran and the world powers. Intelligence information (from Israel and from Western intelligence organizations) shows that Iran is continuing full speed ahead on its ballistic missile program. The Saudis are concerned that Iran will be able to launch long-range nuclear missiles only a short time after the expiration of the nuclear agreement. At that point, they would need Israeli technology and experience in order to provide themselves with a respectable defense umbrella. Many in the region feel that Iran’s expansionist goals can only be counteracted by a unity of forces between Israel and members of the Sunni bloc.
This is the theory, but a great distance separates theory and implementation of the theory. The current Netanyahu government is simply not capable of making significant concessions. The maximum it can give is very far from the minimum that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas could accept.
Until recently, the Saudis believed (and perhaps the Egyptians, too) that Trump could square the circle because he would scare the sides into flexibility. The problem is that today’s Trump is not like the old Trump. Even the compliment given to him in Riyadh (“a unique personality that is capable of doing the impossible”) by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is more of a heart’s desire than a rational possibility.
Those in Netanyahu’s environs want to eat their cake and have it, too: They want to fudge the political process on the one hand, but strengthen the unofficial alliance with the Sunni bloc on the other. With regard to Trump, the euphoria has long since dissipated. The most interesting and promising option from Netanyahu’s point of view at this point in time is the possible impeachment of Trump and appointment of Vice President Mike Pence to the presidential role. Pence, as opposed to Trump, is a "real" Republican: a conservative and real friend of Israel, with an unwavering, well-formed worldview — which is exactly what Netanyahu wanted but did not receive.
Katar im Mittelpunkt der Juni-Krise 2017
Saudi Arabia cited Qatar’s support of “terrorist groups aiming to destabilize the region,” including the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State and al-Qaeda. It accused Qatar of supporting “Iranian-backed terrorist groups” operating in the kingdom’s eastern province as well as Bahrain. Saudi Arabia, along with Bahrain and the U.A.E., gave Qatari diplomats 48 hours to leave. Qatar responded by saying it regrets the "unjustified" decision of the gulf nations to sever ties and called the accusations “baseless”, saying they were part of a plan to “impose guardianship on the state, which in itself is a violation of sovereignty.”